Strategy and Performance

TSPKey’s strategy is primarily based on two things: the stock market’s long-term trend and seasonality.

There are many approaches to long-term investing.  However, only a few have real data showing they have outperformed buy-and-hold with less risk. Among these, trend-following and seasonality are among the most impressive.

The table below shows a backtest of our current strategy. It also shows the C Fund, G Fund and a 60% stock/40% bond allocation. 60/40 allocations are often used as benchmarks when comparing investments. You can see current year returns here and learn about our previous strategies here.

Year TSPKey G Fund C Fund 60/40*
2004 13.79 4.30 10.82 11.59
2005 9.00 4.49 4.96 7.34
2006 16.25 4.93 15.79 13.35
2007 12.43 4.87 5.54 7.28
2008 0.74 3.75 -36.99 -22.65
2009 13.86 2.97 26.68 20.83
2010 30.71 2.81 15.06 12.05
2011 7.80 2.45 2.11 0.27
2012 20.25 1.47 16.07 12.74
2013 34.60 1.89 32.45 17.81
2014 10.07 2.31 13.78 5.13
2015 0.37 2.04 1.46 0.56
2016 14.87 1.82 12.01 7.30
CAGR** 13.69 3.08 7.78 6.62
MDD*** 16.45 N/A 55.22 37.07
MAR**** 0.83 N/A 0.14 0.18

* 60/40 = 20% in each TSP Fund (G, F, C, S and I)
** CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
*** MAXDD = Max Drawdown. The biggest drop from a high point to a low point. The lower the number, the less risk.
**** MAR = CAGR / Max Drawdown. This measures the risk-adjusted return. The higher the number, the better.