Performance of TSPKey Strategies
About This Data
TSPKey has two strategies. Our main strategy is simply named TSPKey and is recommended for most investors. Low-Risk is our other strategy — geared for those who may need access to TSP funds in the near future and want to protect their principal.
The table below shows a full 22-year backtest of both strategies alongside every individual TSP fund — F, C, G, S, and I.
Our strategies are based on two concepts. The first is moving out of stock funds in long-term bear markets. Since these are rare, our strategy has only moved out of stock funds three times since the year 2000. The first was the dot-com bubble (which happened before our backtest started). The next was the 2008-09 financial crisis and the last was the 2022-23 bear market.
The second concept is moderately reducing allocations to stock funds after extremely strong rallies–and allocating more money to stocks after sharp, short-term pullbacks. This allows us to “buy low and sell high” when the market is trending up, which is most of the time.
We began implementing this strategy in June 2025.
Annual Returns, 2004–2025
| Year | TSPKey | Low-Risk | F Fund | C Fund | G Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 15.94% | 10.67% | 4.30% | 10.80% | 4.30% | 18.00% | 20.00% |
| 2005 | 7.71% | 7.71% | 2.40% | 5.00% | 4.50% | 10.50% | 13.60% |
| 2006 | 15.60% | 10.32% | 4.40% | 15.80% | 4.90% | 15.30% | 26.30% |
| 2007 | 5.55% | 5.92% | 7.10% | 6.52% | 4.90% | 5.50% | 11.40% |
| 2008 | -1.44% | 1.31% | 5.50% | -37.00% | 3.80% | -38.30% | -42.40% |
| 2009 | 10.79% | 6.91% | 6.00% | 26.70% | 3.00% | 34.80% | 30.00% |
| 2010 | 21.94% | 14.35% | 6.70% | 15.10% | 2.80% | 29.10% | 7.90% |
| 2011 | -0.57% | 1.81% | 7.90% | 2.10% | 2.50% | -3.40% | -11.80% |
| 2012 | 17.36% | 9.39% | 4.30% | 16.10% | 1.50% | 18.60% | 18.60% |
| 2013 | 32.30% | 16.27% | -1.70% | 32.40% | 1.90% | 38.30% | 22.10% |
| 2014 | 11.40% | 6.91% | 6.70% | 13.80% | 2.30% | 7.80% | -5.30% |
| 2015 | -0.72% | 0.95% | 0.90% | 1.50% | 2.00% | -2.90% | -0.50% |
| 2016 | 14.23% | 8.14% | 2.90% | 12.00% | 1.80% | 16.30% | 2.10% |
| 2017 | 19.02% | 10.44% | 3.80% | 21.80% | 2.30% | 18.20% | 25.40% |
| 2018 | -5.98% | -1.37% | 0.20% | -4.40% | 2.90% | -9.30% | -13.40% |
| 2019 | 29.75% | 15.43% | 8.70% | 31.50% | 2.20% | 28.00% | 22.50% |
| 2020 | 36.13% | 18.92% | 7.50% | 18.30% | 1.00% | 31.90% | 8.20% |
| 2021 | 19.11% | 10.10% | -1.50% | 28.70% | 1.40% | 12.50% | 11.50% |
| 2022 | -18.93% | -8.22% | -12.80% | -18.10% | 3.00% | -26.30% | -13.90% |
| 2023 | 19.15% | 11.64% | 5.60% | 26.20% | 4.20% | 25.30% | 18.40% |
| 2024 | 19.15% | 11.77% | 1.30% | 25.00% | 4.40% | 16.90% | 4.30% |
| 2025 | 15.31% | 10.23% | 7.20% | 17.80% | 4.40% | 11.40% | 32.50% |
| $10,000 becomes | $129,737.00 | $53,637.39 | $20,902.70 | $94,022.00 | $19,317.26 | $80,535.02 | $43,017.21 |